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Kalshi Prediction Markets Rival Professional Forecasters in Accuracy, Fed Paper Finds
Kalshi Prediction Markets Rival Professional Forecasters in Accuracy, Fed Paper Finds
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BTCCSquare news:
Prediction markets on Kalshi demonstrate accuracy comparable to professional economic forecasts, according to a Federal Reserve discussion paper. The research highlights how crowd-sourced market expectations can mirror traditional analytical methods—combining macroeconomic signals, policy insights, and real-time sentiment.
Unlike lagging survey-based indicators, Kalshi's continuously updated data reflects shifting probabilities with precision. The platform's mean absolute error for federal funds rate forecasts aligns closely with institutional projections 150 days ahead—suggesting predictive markets may offer a dynamic supplement to conventional forecasting tools.
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